Iron Bowl Prediction (well, sort of)

Last year after three games, Auburn looked very bad and Alabama looked pretty good. At that point I made the prediction that Auburn would actually beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl (you can find that prediction on this Blog). Turned out, I was a prophet, or at least lucky anyway!

This year we have now played eleven games and I have not made a prediction. Seems pretty clear. AU is 5-6, and Bama is 11-0 and ranked number one. The obvious prediction is that Alabama will win and possibly by a large margin. It's not just the records, there are other things to consider.....

1) Alabama has dominated most games this year at the line of scrimmagr on both sides of the ball. This has been evident from the first game of the year. The thing I kept thinking as I watched them this year is that their skill players are not really any better than anyone elses (although Julio Jones certainly has potential to be one of the best ever) but that their linemen just dominate the other side. And, as they say, games are won in the trenches.

2) Auburn's interior, on the other hand, has had innumerable problems all year long. Their offensive line, especially Ziemba, has had a problem with holding and false start penalties all year. More often than not, when the QB performs a deep handoff, the defensive linemen are already in the runners face. On the defensive side, AU has looked great at times, but has suffered so many injuiries that they have looked hideous at times (esp vs West Va in the second half)

3) While AU is 5-6, they have even looked unimpressive for that record. As noted earlier they only scored 20 offensive points against La Monroe. They nearly let Southern Miss back into a game that had dominated. The 3-2 win against Miss St is what I have referred to as the most embarrasing victory in the history of Auburn Football. They held on to beat the worst UTenn team in my memory, scoring one offensive and one defensive TD. They were tied 20-20 in the third quarter to a 1-AA team (UT Martin) In two games they missed PAT's which very well may have cost them the game. Their field goal kicker has choked all year.

4) Bama has six years of pent up frustration and are just aching to take revenge.

5) I think Nick Saban is probably the least likely coach to overlook AU and look ahead to Florida. I absolutely believe he will have them ready.

6) AU's coaching staff has been a fiasco this year, with the hiring of Tony Franklin, the failure of that venture (and I still do not know where the fault lies in that mess) and his subsequent firing. Since then Steve Ensminger has run the show. If we were expecting Franklin to be Baskin Robbins 31 flavors, Ensminger is, always has been and always will be just plain vanilla.

7) Bama will have home field advantage.

With all that said, and more that could be, it seems the only question is not will Bama win, but by how much.

However, perhaps I am just being an overly optimistic Tiger fan, but I do not rule out the possiblity that they will make a game of it, and even have at least some reasonable chance to win. I am not predicting they will win, but I am saying that if they do, I will not be totally stunned. Admittedly, some of this may come from the Orange and Blue colored glasses I seem to wear, but some of it comes from actual reasoning. Hear me out.

1) At times this year, AUs defense has been supurb, even suffocating. The defense is what has won the games they've won. During the middle stretch of the year, most notably at the WVA game, the defense was just riddled with injuires. Now, the defense is as healthy as it has been since the beginning of the year. Their defense should be able to at least keep them in the game.

2) With all the coaching mess this year, this will now be the sixth game this year under the 'new' system - i.e. without Franklin. As vanilla as Ensminger is, I do at least believe progress is being made from where they were earlier this year.

3) Kodi Burns is coming along. He is still a true Sophomore without tons of playing time, but he occasionally makes plays that are unbelievable, and seems to be gaining confidence. If only he had played the full year......

4) Tuscaloosa is like home away from home for Auburn. Auburn has NEVER lost there. They have that streak (which I think is six games) along with their six game win streak in the series on the line.

5) As bad as AU has been (they are 5-6 and could eaisily be 2-9 or 3-8) they are on the other side just a play here and a play there away from being 8-3 or 9-2. They led the WVa game at one point 17-3. Through the WVa game, they had led all of their games at halftime. They lost on a late score to LSU. They missed an extra point and were stopped on the goal line against Vandy and lost by one point. They led Arkansa 20-10 before losing late. They stayed toe to toe with UGa for most of the game. Missed an extra point, missed one or two field goals, and were still deep in UGa territory late with a chance to win, beofe losing 17-13.

6) Every year since he has been there (except 2004) Tuberville has had one or two games where AU has looked like they were just totally unprepared and AU has gotten beaten ugly. However, every year since he has been there, AU has had at least one game where they looked like the best prepared team in the country. Check the record. At least once per year, AU looks like world beaters. This year, they have had several of the no-shows, and none of the great games. They are due up.

When all is said and done, I am not making an actual definite prediction either way. If you absolutely forced me to say who I thought would win, I would have to say Bama for the above reasons. However, for the other reasons, I think AU actually has a better chance than most are giving them. Really, the score could be anywhere from 38-7 Bama to 20-17 Auburn!

That's all right if we lose. We can start a new streak next year!