Early Iron Bowl Prediction

Things appear bleak on the Plains. UAT has hired a coach who can walk on water and they will likely never lose a game while he is there. Auburn has started the season 1-2 and has looked like a cellar dweller in the SEC West. Heavens to Betsy they even lost to Mississippi State – who in the world does that? Therefore, it will appear shocking to some that I, the Groaning Philosopher, will make such a bold prediction right here on September 17, 2007:

Auburn will beat Alabama this year.

It is evident that somewhere in the past couple of years Auburn has had sub par recruiting classes. It is also evident that, although he was Mr. Football for the State of Alabama about fourteen years ago, Brandon Cox is not really a Division One level college football quarterback. Auburn also lost four of its five starters on the offensive line. It is also evident that Auburn had a fine recruiting class this most recent year. The result of all of this is that Auburn is playing a lot of Freshmen and other inexperienced players, including, finally, Kody Burns at QB.

As bad as Auburn has looked, they are, seriously, a couple of plays away from being undefeated. Now, I know that things like that are said by losers. Fact is, Auburn IS 1-2 and not 3-0. I am not making excuses here, just observations. I also know that, with the schedule so far, a 3-0 season with three close wins would not be all that impressive. But, at least consider: On one of Brandon’s rare good throws against USF he hit a wide open receiver in the hands on a deep route and it was dropped. Later, during overtime, he hit a tight end on a drag route and it was dropped. This likely would have been a score had it been caught.

The difference in the MSU game was less than a TD. MSU scored a TD off of an interception where Cox hit number eighty seven right between the eight and the seven. He popped the ball up, though, right into the hands of an oncoming defender who could have walked backwards into the end zone from there.

AU has had tremendous trouble with turnovers. In addition to receiver problems, Cox has thrown the ball more directly at defenders than he has his teammates. AU has fumbled several times, most notably Freshman running back Mario Fannin.

These are all terrible mistakes, but, I believe there will be tremendous improvement by the end of the year. I believe the receivers will be taught to catch the ball or sit down. I believe Fannin will be taught to hold onto the ball. Unfortuantely, I think Cox is beyond help, but I believe they will begin using him more wisely, and more and more using Burns in varying situations. By the end of the year, I think our offense will have, to a large degree, turned it around. I don’t think we’ll be world beaters, but I think there will be tremendous improvement. This improvement will, of course, take a lot off of our overworked defense as well.

Now, I know what you’re thinking – you don’t have to say it. This is just an Auburn fan making excuses and dreaming of a miracle turn around. Or perhaps you think I have drank the Tuberville Kool Aid. Actually, I am not like that at all. Back in 2003 I personally felt that the AU administration was smart to be looking at firing him and hiring someone else. I thought they were idiots in the way they handled it, but I personally was not sold on him entirely, and really I still am not. He had done a lousy job in '03 and deserved to have his seat feel uncomfortably warm.

Also, usually no matter what the records of AU/UAT are when they meet, I always have a bad feeling about that game. I have never at any time during the season over the past twenty five years made a prediction about the outcome of that game. Even when AU appeared to be great and UAT subpar, I have never assumed AU would win. It’s just that, for some reason, as bad as AU has looked thus far, I just don’t get the feeling that it is quite as bad as it looks. I think there is actually more promise for the future than one might think. I think we are a little coaching here and there away from being decent. I think that Burns is a little experience away from being a powerful tool on offense. I think Cox in a backup or situation role is much more effective than in a starting/only QB playing role. I think Fannin and Tate have tremendous potential for a fast, but powerful running game. I think our defense is sound and if the offense can do something and not continually put the defense in bad situations, they will be much stronger.

In the end, if I turn out to be right, I will tell everyone I know to look at the blog I wrote today, September 17, 2007. If I turn out to be dead wrong, I will just remove this blog and tell no one about it. No one reads this anyway!!!