Unfortunately, I have so many things I'd like to blog about, but way too little time. In addition to job duties (40-55 hours per week), family duties, diaconal duties (which I need to be doing much more of), I now am attempting to make a little $$ on the side on ebay. It is actually going fairly good right now. If nothing else, I should get enough dough to help with Christmas this year, and then we'll just have to see where it goes from there.
But nearly every day I think of something I would like to blog on. Problem is, I love thinkning about these things, but actually writing them down is the slow, boring, mundane part. It takes time. It never sounds as good written out as it did in my mind when I was thinking about it. Because of this, my blogging has been very sporadic. A lot of what has been posted was stuff I have written over the years and been wondering what to do with. I just cut and pasted them on the blog.
Oh well, maybe I just need to learn to schedule and manage my time where I put an hour or two into bloggin each week. Hmmmm. Time management... yeah, I should try that sometime!
Monday, November 19, 2007
Final Iron Bowl Prediction
Wow....It sure is hard to predict college football! That seems particularly true this year. App St. beats Michigan. Now La Monroe....LA MONROE!!!!!.......beats Bama. In between, it seems every time a team gets ranked high, they get the rug pulled out from under them.
Way back when - when AU was 1-2 and UAT was 3-0, I made the prediction that AU would win the Iron Bowl. That seemed pretty much a stretch at the time. I mean, AU had lost to Mississippi State for crying out loud.
Well, now, on the one hand, that prediction looks pretty sensible. UAT has now lost to MSU also. And now they have lost to one of the worst teams they'll ever play. That loss in nearly on par with the Mich-App st. loss that started the year. They have lost three in a row. Their record in November over the past several years is horendous. UAT seems disjointed, disorganized, and their Savior, Saban, seems out of sorts. In addition to the last three losses, they also lost close ones to UGa, and a below par Florida St. team. They also had very close wins against the very mediocre Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Houston. Sure, they are a few plays here and there away from from having nine or ten wins. They are also a few plays away from having nine or ten losses.
However, I am certainly not fully comfortable with this prediction either. I offer the following reasons:
Auburn has not exactly looked great this year. At times they have looked strong-the Florida and Vandy games come to mind. Their Defense in the Arkansas game was smothering. But, they lost to MSU, S. Florida, they found a way to lose to LSU when they had the game won, and they looked simply awful against UGa. In the end, AU has really been as inconsistent as UAT.
Auburn has QB issues. Cox has looked good at times, and great at times. Unfortunately he has also looked like a boy amongst men at times. Apparently Burns is not ready to run the show. I would think Blake Field couldn't possibly be as inconsistent as Cox, but he rarely gets any time (although he has moved up to number two behind Cox and ahead of Burns)
At times, UAT has looked quite good. Their comeback against ARK was impressive. They certainly played UGA better than AU did. They played LSU as well as AU did. They looked like the Bama of old against UT.
The longer a losing streak continues, the higher the odds that it will end. UAT has a three game losing streak this season and a five game losing streak against AU. I don't know for sure, but I'll bet you would have to go back to the Ears Whitworth years in the 1950s to find a time when UAT lost four in a row. And they have never lost six in a row against AU.
It is highly possible that in spite of all the coach speak to the contrary, UAT was simply looking past La Monroe...LA MONROE!!!!..... and prepping for AU. We all know how bad they want the Tigers and this would make sense.
It seems like in the Tubby Tommerville years, AU never comes back from an off week very strongly.
The above reasons give me a little concern. I think in the end, it all depends on which Auburn, and which UAT team shows up. If the AU team that lost to Georgia and the UAT team that beat UT shows up, it could be a long day for the Tigers. If the AU team that beat Florida and the UAT team that lost to La Monroe...LA MONROE - I still can't get over that one!!!!..... shows up, it could be glorious.
In the end, I will not go back on my original prediction. So, my final call is.....
AU 24
UAT 16
Now, let's play ball!
Happy Thanksgiving!
Way back when - when AU was 1-2 and UAT was 3-0, I made the prediction that AU would win the Iron Bowl. That seemed pretty much a stretch at the time. I mean, AU had lost to Mississippi State for crying out loud.
Well, now, on the one hand, that prediction looks pretty sensible. UAT has now lost to MSU also. And now they have lost to one of the worst teams they'll ever play. That loss in nearly on par with the Mich-App st. loss that started the year. They have lost three in a row. Their record in November over the past several years is horendous. UAT seems disjointed, disorganized, and their Savior, Saban, seems out of sorts. In addition to the last three losses, they also lost close ones to UGa, and a below par Florida St. team. They also had very close wins against the very mediocre Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Houston. Sure, they are a few plays here and there away from from having nine or ten wins. They are also a few plays away from having nine or ten losses.
However, I am certainly not fully comfortable with this prediction either. I offer the following reasons:
Auburn has not exactly looked great this year. At times they have looked strong-the Florida and Vandy games come to mind. Their Defense in the Arkansas game was smothering. But, they lost to MSU, S. Florida, they found a way to lose to LSU when they had the game won, and they looked simply awful against UGa. In the end, AU has really been as inconsistent as UAT.
Auburn has QB issues. Cox has looked good at times, and great at times. Unfortunately he has also looked like a boy amongst men at times. Apparently Burns is not ready to run the show. I would think Blake Field couldn't possibly be as inconsistent as Cox, but he rarely gets any time (although he has moved up to number two behind Cox and ahead of Burns)
At times, UAT has looked quite good. Their comeback against ARK was impressive. They certainly played UGA better than AU did. They played LSU as well as AU did. They looked like the Bama of old against UT.
The longer a losing streak continues, the higher the odds that it will end. UAT has a three game losing streak this season and a five game losing streak against AU. I don't know for sure, but I'll bet you would have to go back to the Ears Whitworth years in the 1950s to find a time when UAT lost four in a row. And they have never lost six in a row against AU.
It is highly possible that in spite of all the coach speak to the contrary, UAT was simply looking past La Monroe...LA MONROE!!!!..... and prepping for AU. We all know how bad they want the Tigers and this would make sense.
It seems like in the Tubby Tommerville years, AU never comes back from an off week very strongly.
The above reasons give me a little concern. I think in the end, it all depends on which Auburn, and which UAT team shows up. If the AU team that lost to Georgia and the UAT team that beat UT shows up, it could be a long day for the Tigers. If the AU team that beat Florida and the UAT team that lost to La Monroe...LA MONROE - I still can't get over that one!!!!..... shows up, it could be glorious.
In the end, I will not go back on my original prediction. So, my final call is.....
AU 24
UAT 16
Now, let's play ball!
Happy Thanksgiving!
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Another interesting statistic
Recent studies have shown that all lawyers are not bad. It seems that 99% of them give the rest of them a bad name!
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Monday, October 1, 2007
Update on Iron Bowl prediction
10/1/07
Okay - still a lot of football to play and who knows how it will go. However, I must say, that no matter how the rest of the season goes and who wins what and who loses what, the Iron Bowl prediction does not look nearly as crazy as it did two weeks ago. Then, Auburn was 1-2 and UAT was 3-0. Now, they are both 3-2. Auburn's close win over KState looks pretty good given that KState just demolished Texas. Auburn's close loss in OT to SFlorida is not so embarrasing given that SFlorida is now solidly in the top 10 and just this pass week defeated a very good WViginia team. AU still lost to MSU which is NEVER a good thing, but, it does appear that MSU is not really a terrible football team.
Now, Auburn just beat UF for the second straight year. UF is 17-2 for the past two years, both loses coming to AU. Moreover, they beat them at the Swamp where they are nearly invincible.
Now, Coach Tub has a history of no matter how bad AU is, at least once per year, sometimes twice, they play lights out and win a game they should not even be competitive in. He also has a history of no matter how good AU is, at least once per year, sometimes more, AU loses a game that they should have won handily (other than '04!). AT this point right now, I do not know if the UF game falls into the former category, or if the MSU game falls into the latter. The next three weeks should tell us a lot. Vandy, Arkansas, and LSU. At this point, one would think AU should beat Vandy, the Ark game may be too close to call, and one would realistically think beating LSU at Death Valley would be almost out of the question. However, theoratically any and all of these three games could go either way and the way they go will tell us a lot about what kind of team this is.
Finally, though, I really think the next couple of years are very bright for AU. They are currently starting 3 true freshmen on the O-line. They are getting some experience for their versatile Freshman QB. They have several young RBs and Lester is coming back now and should be back next year.
But, in the end, we will only see on the field. That's why they play them!
Okay - still a lot of football to play and who knows how it will go. However, I must say, that no matter how the rest of the season goes and who wins what and who loses what, the Iron Bowl prediction does not look nearly as crazy as it did two weeks ago. Then, Auburn was 1-2 and UAT was 3-0. Now, they are both 3-2. Auburn's close win over KState looks pretty good given that KState just demolished Texas. Auburn's close loss in OT to SFlorida is not so embarrasing given that SFlorida is now solidly in the top 10 and just this pass week defeated a very good WViginia team. AU still lost to MSU which is NEVER a good thing, but, it does appear that MSU is not really a terrible football team.
Now, Auburn just beat UF for the second straight year. UF is 17-2 for the past two years, both loses coming to AU. Moreover, they beat them at the Swamp where they are nearly invincible.
Now, Coach Tub has a history of no matter how bad AU is, at least once per year, sometimes twice, they play lights out and win a game they should not even be competitive in. He also has a history of no matter how good AU is, at least once per year, sometimes more, AU loses a game that they should have won handily (other than '04!). AT this point right now, I do not know if the UF game falls into the former category, or if the MSU game falls into the latter. The next three weeks should tell us a lot. Vandy, Arkansas, and LSU. At this point, one would think AU should beat Vandy, the Ark game may be too close to call, and one would realistically think beating LSU at Death Valley would be almost out of the question. However, theoratically any and all of these three games could go either way and the way they go will tell us a lot about what kind of team this is.
Finally, though, I really think the next couple of years are very bright for AU. They are currently starting 3 true freshmen on the O-line. They are getting some experience for their versatile Freshman QB. They have several young RBs and Lester is coming back now and should be back next year.
But, in the end, we will only see on the field. That's why they play them!
Monday, September 17, 2007
Early Iron Bowl Prediction
Things appear bleak on the Plains. UAT has hired a coach who can walk on water and they will likely never lose a game while he is there. Auburn has started the season 1-2 and has looked like a cellar dweller in the SEC West. Heavens to Betsy they even lost to Mississippi State – who in the world does that? Therefore, it will appear shocking to some that I, the Groaning Philosopher, will make such a bold prediction right here on September 17, 2007:
Auburn will beat Alabama this year.
It is evident that somewhere in the past couple of years Auburn has had sub par recruiting classes. It is also evident that, although he was Mr. Football for the State of Alabama about fourteen years ago, Brandon Cox is not really a Division One level college football quarterback. Auburn also lost four of its five starters on the offensive line. It is also evident that Auburn had a fine recruiting class this most recent year. The result of all of this is that Auburn is playing a lot of Freshmen and other inexperienced players, including, finally, Kody Burns at QB.
As bad as Auburn has looked, they are, seriously, a couple of plays away from being undefeated. Now, I know that things like that are said by losers. Fact is, Auburn IS 1-2 and not 3-0. I am not making excuses here, just observations. I also know that, with the schedule so far, a 3-0 season with three close wins would not be all that impressive. But, at least consider: On one of Brandon’s rare good throws against USF he hit a wide open receiver in the hands on a deep route and it was dropped. Later, during overtime, he hit a tight end on a drag route and it was dropped. This likely would have been a score had it been caught.
The difference in the MSU game was less than a TD. MSU scored a TD off of an interception where Cox hit number eighty seven right between the eight and the seven. He popped the ball up, though, right into the hands of an oncoming defender who could have walked backwards into the end zone from there.
AU has had tremendous trouble with turnovers. In addition to receiver problems, Cox has thrown the ball more directly at defenders than he has his teammates. AU has fumbled several times, most notably Freshman running back Mario Fannin.
These are all terrible mistakes, but, I believe there will be tremendous improvement by the end of the year. I believe the receivers will be taught to catch the ball or sit down. I believe Fannin will be taught to hold onto the ball. Unfortuantely, I think Cox is beyond help, but I believe they will begin using him more wisely, and more and more using Burns in varying situations. By the end of the year, I think our offense will have, to a large degree, turned it around. I don’t think we’ll be world beaters, but I think there will be tremendous improvement. This improvement will, of course, take a lot off of our overworked defense as well.
Now, I know what you’re thinking – you don’t have to say it. This is just an Auburn fan making excuses and dreaming of a miracle turn around. Or perhaps you think I have drank the Tuberville Kool Aid. Actually, I am not like that at all. Back in 2003 I personally felt that the AU administration was smart to be looking at firing him and hiring someone else. I thought they were idiots in the way they handled it, but I personally was not sold on him entirely, and really I still am not. He had done a lousy job in '03 and deserved to have his seat feel uncomfortably warm.
Also, usually no matter what the records of AU/UAT are when they meet, I always have a bad feeling about that game. I have never at any time during the season over the past twenty five years made a prediction about the outcome of that game. Even when AU appeared to be great and UAT subpar, I have never assumed AU would win. It’s just that, for some reason, as bad as AU has looked thus far, I just don’t get the feeling that it is quite as bad as it looks. I think there is actually more promise for the future than one might think. I think we are a little coaching here and there away from being decent. I think that Burns is a little experience away from being a powerful tool on offense. I think Cox in a backup or situation role is much more effective than in a starting/only QB playing role. I think Fannin and Tate have tremendous potential for a fast, but powerful running game. I think our defense is sound and if the offense can do something and not continually put the defense in bad situations, they will be much stronger.
In the end, if I turn out to be right, I will tell everyone I know to look at the blog I wrote today, September 17, 2007. If I turn out to be dead wrong, I will just remove this blog and tell no one about it. No one reads this anyway!!!
Auburn will beat Alabama this year.
It is evident that somewhere in the past couple of years Auburn has had sub par recruiting classes. It is also evident that, although he was Mr. Football for the State of Alabama about fourteen years ago, Brandon Cox is not really a Division One level college football quarterback. Auburn also lost four of its five starters on the offensive line. It is also evident that Auburn had a fine recruiting class this most recent year. The result of all of this is that Auburn is playing a lot of Freshmen and other inexperienced players, including, finally, Kody Burns at QB.
As bad as Auburn has looked, they are, seriously, a couple of plays away from being undefeated. Now, I know that things like that are said by losers. Fact is, Auburn IS 1-2 and not 3-0. I am not making excuses here, just observations. I also know that, with the schedule so far, a 3-0 season with three close wins would not be all that impressive. But, at least consider: On one of Brandon’s rare good throws against USF he hit a wide open receiver in the hands on a deep route and it was dropped. Later, during overtime, he hit a tight end on a drag route and it was dropped. This likely would have been a score had it been caught.
The difference in the MSU game was less than a TD. MSU scored a TD off of an interception where Cox hit number eighty seven right between the eight and the seven. He popped the ball up, though, right into the hands of an oncoming defender who could have walked backwards into the end zone from there.
AU has had tremendous trouble with turnovers. In addition to receiver problems, Cox has thrown the ball more directly at defenders than he has his teammates. AU has fumbled several times, most notably Freshman running back Mario Fannin.
These are all terrible mistakes, but, I believe there will be tremendous improvement by the end of the year. I believe the receivers will be taught to catch the ball or sit down. I believe Fannin will be taught to hold onto the ball. Unfortuantely, I think Cox is beyond help, but I believe they will begin using him more wisely, and more and more using Burns in varying situations. By the end of the year, I think our offense will have, to a large degree, turned it around. I don’t think we’ll be world beaters, but I think there will be tremendous improvement. This improvement will, of course, take a lot off of our overworked defense as well.
Now, I know what you’re thinking – you don’t have to say it. This is just an Auburn fan making excuses and dreaming of a miracle turn around. Or perhaps you think I have drank the Tuberville Kool Aid. Actually, I am not like that at all. Back in 2003 I personally felt that the AU administration was smart to be looking at firing him and hiring someone else. I thought they were idiots in the way they handled it, but I personally was not sold on him entirely, and really I still am not. He had done a lousy job in '03 and deserved to have his seat feel uncomfortably warm.
Also, usually no matter what the records of AU/UAT are when they meet, I always have a bad feeling about that game. I have never at any time during the season over the past twenty five years made a prediction about the outcome of that game. Even when AU appeared to be great and UAT subpar, I have never assumed AU would win. It’s just that, for some reason, as bad as AU has looked thus far, I just don’t get the feeling that it is quite as bad as it looks. I think there is actually more promise for the future than one might think. I think we are a little coaching here and there away from being decent. I think that Burns is a little experience away from being a powerful tool on offense. I think Cox in a backup or situation role is much more effective than in a starting/only QB playing role. I think Fannin and Tate have tremendous potential for a fast, but powerful running game. I think our defense is sound and if the offense can do something and not continually put the defense in bad situations, they will be much stronger.
In the end, if I turn out to be right, I will tell everyone I know to look at the blog I wrote today, September 17, 2007. If I turn out to be dead wrong, I will just remove this blog and tell no one about it. No one reads this anyway!!!
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