Another season nearly gone

Well, another football season is drawing to a close. I have not written any on it this year. Thought I'd put my two cents worth (and not much more) now while I have just a minute.

I am actually excited about the future prospects of Auburn football. The immediate prospects are not too great, though. They have at times this year looked quite good, especially on offense. At other times they have looked horrendous, in all three phases of the game.

Their main problem right now, and this affects all three phases, is depth. They have pretty good depth at skill positions on offense. Ben Tate, Onterio McCaleb, Mario Fannin, and Erick Smith are all pretty good running backs. However, Smith has had off the field troubles (apparently of his own doing), Fannin seems to have trouble holding on to the ball, and McCaleb has had a nagging injury since the middles of the season. I do not think it is a coincidence that Auburn's offense has tended to look much less explosive when McCaleb was unable to play. I think the one-two punch of O-Mac and Tate opens us up tremendously. Take O-Mac out, and that closes us down a bit.

Our collection of receivers is really incredible. We got a couple of real hot recruits last year, including the 21 year old freshman Deangelo Benton, as well as Emory Blake. We also had returning highly recruited junior (I believe) Tim Hawthorne. However, these three have combined for very little of our receiving. Benton did not have a catch all year until the tenth game in mop up duty against hapless Furman. What has happened is that out of nowhere youngsters Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachary have exploded to become major players. These two far and away lead the team in receptions, td receptions, and receiving yards. In addition to these, QB turned receiver Kodi Burns has a few receptions, as does H-back Fannin, and a few others.

At Tight End, senior Tommy Trott has been consistent and will be missed. However, a couple of times freshman hot shot Phil Luthtrlskdnginglskdmngh (Ok, the spelling may not be right!) has shone. I think he will be a tremendous tight end in our offense in the future.

Chris Todd at QB has looked like a Heisman contender at times, and looked like a High School non-starter at others. He is more or less the mirror of this team. Jekyl and Hyde. As Todd goes, so goes Auburn.

When we get to the O-line, we start to see some problems. We have some good players there, but virtually no depth, and little consistency. There have also been apparently some off field issues, causing some suspensions. When there is no depth, and you lose a player or to to injury or suspension, you get sacks, three and outs, etc.

On the defensive side, while there have certainly been some high points, the biggest problem is definitely depth. Throw in the fact that we have had some injuries and that problem really gets magnified. Our starting D-line is real good, but it falls off behind the starters. Eltoro Freeman has really come on as of late at LB, but has been hurt some and it really falls off from there. Neiko Thorpre at DB has tremendous athletic ability, but his technique leaves me with my doubts that he could cover even me! Seems like every long pass play against us this year has had one thing in common - number 15 trailing the open receiver. Darren Bates is a freshman safety with superstar potential.

Depth really shows on special teams. We have been non-existent in returning punts this year, and I swear if we have dropped one punt we have dropped fifty. We finally found a kick return game against UGA, returning one for a TD.

On the whole, I do not think AU right now is quite as good as they have looked when they looked their best this year. Neither do I think they were quite as bad as they have looked at their worst. They sit at 7-4 which is about what I would have thought, although the 7 and the four may have been against different teams. They now only have undefeated NC contender and hated rival Alabama to go, and the prospects do not look good.

If I had to guess, I would put Bama at least three touchdowns favored right now. This is because Bama's strenghts match up exceedingly well against Auburn. Bama has a tremendous running game, and Auburn has struggled stopping the run even against mediocre teams all year. Bama has a tremendous defense, and Auburns offense has been so up and down all year, due mainly to the lack of depth on the line and the up and down play of Todd.

I never say never and lots of stranger things have happened in football history than an Auburn victory over Alabama - so I do not completely count them out. However, in my mind to realistically make a game out of it, I think they need the following:

1. O-Mac's ankle needs to be 100%, giving Auburn the Thunder and Lightening running attack of him and Tate.
2. Freeman needs to be at 100%. AU is weak on the run defense side, but this weakness is glaring without Freeman.
3. AU needs to score or set up scores on special teams. They finally got some kick returning going las weak. If they can just learn to catch and return a punt, this will help.
4. They need to minimize the needless penalties - something they have struggled with all year.
5. They need to be on the plus side in turnover ratio. This has been another indicator in their wins and losses this year.

If they can do all of this, with a little luck, this could be a good and close game. If not, then my three touchdown prediction may still be undershooting it a bit.

Now, as for the future, I think it is getting brighter. Remember Saban's first year? 6-6. At worst Chiziks first year will be 7-5. And that coming off the disaster of the last Tuberville season, and the disaster of the last several Tuberville recruiting classes. I remember hearing before the season started about how depth would be an issue because not only had CTT not recruited as many good players as needed, but that many that he did recruit either never qualified or have since left the team. While Auburn's starting 22 may be in the upper half of the SEC, certainly their top 44 are in the bottom half, and their total depth of SEC quality players is probably in the lower portions of the bottom half. This explains the Jekyl and Hyde look of this years team. When they've clicked, they've looked good. But a little slip here, and a penalty or turnover there, etc. can knock them out in short order.

But Chizik is not sitting around thinking that quality players will come running to Auburn the way his predecessor seemed to think. Instead he is engaging, even challenging, Saban's dominance of the state. Already for this year, among other hot prospects AU has a committment from one of the consensus top three running backs in the nation. (All three in fact have shown interest in AU, one has committed, and while it is out of the question that all three would, two of the three are within reality). he also got a blue chip receiver, the top rated prep player from the state of Louisianna. He has a committment from the nation's number one kicker.

Going back to last year, it was he, not Tuberville, who brought in Deangelo Benton, Emory Blake, Phil Luhjkjhkojkgks, and QBs Tyrik Rolison and Clint Mosely. If he can just over the next couple of years shore up the O-line and the defensive side of the ball, things will turn around. I think we are on a three to four year project here. Saban actually came into a pretty talented team (which is amazing considering the years of probation and AUs dominance over Bama - AU should have been killing them in recruiting but weren't) Chizik has come into a depleted team, and it will take time to rebuild it. Say if we finish 7-5 this year and go to a bowl, then 7-6 or 8-5. I would not be really surprized if our record did not improve much next year, but our performance should. Then by the third year our record should start showing improvement. Then we go from there.

However, if after three to four years there is not significant improvement in the program, you move on. However, I feel pretty good about Chizik, as a person, in his style of coaching, in his choice of assistants (which will change as some of them will move on to bigger jobs) and especially in his zeal for recruiting and building this team. This year is not quite over yet, and I am already looking forward to next year.

War Eagle!