Final Iron Bowl Prediction

Wow....It sure is hard to predict college football! That seems particularly true this year. App St. beats Michigan. Now La Monroe....LA MONROE!!!!!.......beats Bama. In between, it seems every time a team gets ranked high, they get the rug pulled out from under them.

Way back when - when AU was 1-2 and UAT was 3-0, I made the prediction that AU would win the Iron Bowl. That seemed pretty much a stretch at the time. I mean, AU had lost to Mississippi State for crying out loud.

Well, now, on the one hand, that prediction looks pretty sensible. UAT has now lost to MSU also. And now they have lost to one of the worst teams they'll ever play. That loss in nearly on par with the Mich-App st. loss that started the year. They have lost three in a row. Their record in November over the past several years is horendous. UAT seems disjointed, disorganized, and their Savior, Saban, seems out of sorts. In addition to the last three losses, they also lost close ones to UGa, and a below par Florida St. team. They also had very close wins against the very mediocre Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Houston. Sure, they are a few plays here and there away from from having nine or ten wins. They are also a few plays away from having nine or ten losses.

However, I am certainly not fully comfortable with this prediction either. I offer the following reasons:

Auburn has not exactly looked great this year. At times they have looked strong-the Florida and Vandy games come to mind. Their Defense in the Arkansas game was smothering. But, they lost to MSU, S. Florida, they found a way to lose to LSU when they had the game won, and they looked simply awful against UGa. In the end, AU has really been as inconsistent as UAT.

Auburn has QB issues. Cox has looked good at times, and great at times. Unfortunately he has also looked like a boy amongst men at times. Apparently Burns is not ready to run the show. I would think Blake Field couldn't possibly be as inconsistent as Cox, but he rarely gets any time (although he has moved up to number two behind Cox and ahead of Burns)

At times, UAT has looked quite good. Their comeback against ARK was impressive. They certainly played UGA better than AU did. They played LSU as well as AU did. They looked like the Bama of old against UT.

The longer a losing streak continues, the higher the odds that it will end. UAT has a three game losing streak this season and a five game losing streak against AU. I don't know for sure, but I'll bet you would have to go back to the Ears Whitworth years in the 1950s to find a time when UAT lost four in a row. And they have never lost six in a row against AU.

It is highly possible that in spite of all the coach speak to the contrary, UAT was simply looking past La Monroe...LA MONROE!!!!..... and prepping for AU. We all know how bad they want the Tigers and this would make sense.

It seems like in the Tubby Tommerville years, AU never comes back from an off week very strongly.

The above reasons give me a little concern. I think in the end, it all depends on which Auburn, and which UAT team shows up. If the AU team that lost to Georgia and the UAT team that beat UT shows up, it could be a long day for the Tigers. If the AU team that beat Florida and the UAT team that lost to La Monroe...LA MONROE - I still can't get over that one!!!!..... shows up, it could be glorious.

In the end, I will not go back on my original prediction. So, my final call is.....

AU 24
UAT 16

Now, let's play ball!

Happy Thanksgiving!